This season presents a unique scenario. Thanks to England’s high coefficients in the UEFA rankings, the top five Premier League teams are likely to secure Champions League football.
This development adds an extra layer of intrigue to the race, as clubs traditionally vying for fourth place now see fifth as a viable path to Europe’s elite competition.
Arsenal and Liverpool
Liverpool’s dominance this term has been evident, leading the table with a substantial 12-point cushion over second-placed Arsenal. The Gunners, too, have maintained a steady form, positioning themselves comfortably in the top tier. But who else will be in the top five?
Nottingham Forest (Odds: -358)
Few could have predicted Nottingham Forest’s outstanding 2024–25 campaign. Under manager Nuno Espírito Santo since December 2023, the team have transformed from relegation battlers to European hopefuls.
Tactical Analysis
Espírito Santo has implemented a pragmatic approach, emphasizing defensive solidity and speed counter-attacks. Nottingham often employ an ultra-low defensive block, averaging only 39.4% possession – the lowest in the league. Despite this, they’ve secured 54 points from 29 games, proving their effective strategy.
Key to their defense is the partnership between Murillo dos Santos and Nikola Milenković. Murillo’s aggressive, front-foot defending complements Milenković’s sweeping style. They’ve contributed to a league-low five errors leading to shots and the third-best expected goals against (xGA) of 17.3.
— Nottingham Forest (@NFFC) March 20, 2025
In attack, quick transitions have proven key. Midfielder Morgan Gibbs-White conducts play, while forwards Callum Hudson-Odoi and Anthony Elanga provide pace on the flanks. Striker Chris Wood has been prolific, netting 17 goals in 24 league appearances, ranking him among the top scorers this term.
Chances of a Top-Five Finish
Their disciplined defense, efficient counter-attacks, and the coach’s tactical acumen have made a top-five finish a realistic prospect.
Chelsea (Odds: -200)
Chelsea’s 2024-25 season under head coach Enzo Maresca has been a rollercoaster. The team currently occupy fourth place in the Premier League, but after a strong start, their form dipped, leading to concerns about their top-five prospects.
Tactical Analysis
Maresca’s philosophy emphasizes possession-based football, drawing inspiration from his tenure under Pep Guardiola. The approach involves intricate build-up play, with full-backs like Marc Cucurella inverting into midfield to create numerical advantages. However, this strategy has occasionally led to a lack of directness, resulting in fewer goal-scoring opportunities.
Thank you for your support in north London this afternoon. See you back at the Bridge at the start of April. 💙#CFC | #ARSCHE pic.twitter.com/b0AyMpuUoT
— Chelsea FC (@ChelseaFC) March 16, 2025
Midfielder Cole Palmer has been pivotal in their attacking setup, contributing significantly in the early season. His recent dip in form, exacerbated by injuries to key players like Nicolas Jackson and Marc Guiu, has hindered the team’s offensive output.
Consequently, Chelsea have struggled to convert their high-expected goals (xG) into actual points, reflecting inefficiencies in their attack.
Defensively, goalkeeper Robert Sánchez has faced criticism for errors leading to goals, undermining the team’s stability at the back. Maresca’s rigid adherence to a 4-2-3-1 formation has also been questioned. There have been calls for flexibility to address the team’s recent struggles.
Chances of a Top-Five Finish
Chelsea’s season hinges on Maresca’s ability to adapt his methods, rejuvenate players like Palmer, and enhance cohesiveness to secure a top-five finish.
Manchester City (Odds: -400)
This season has been challenging for Manchester City, now 22 points adrift of league leaders Liverpool and holding fifth place.
Tactical Analysis
City have faced challenges adapting their traditional possession-based style.
Defensively, injuries to key center-backs Nathan Aké, John Stones, and Manuel Akanji have compelled Guardiola to deploy Josko Gvardiol as a left-back. While Gvardiol has contributed with five league goals, his absence from the central defense has exposed vulnerabilities, leading to instability.
An unstoppable @OmarMarmoush strike is today’s #HighSpeedMoment ⚡️🎯
🤝 @eAndUAE pic.twitter.com/9MUu2OKaC6
— Manchester City (@ManCity) March 15, 2025
Mid-season acquisitions, like forward Omar Marmoush, aimed to inject dynamism into the attack. Marmoush’s dribbling and versatility are to complement Haaland and create a more unpredictable offense.
Chances of a Top-Five Finish
Despite current challenges, Manchester’s prospects for a top-five finish remain strong. City’s remaining fixtures are considered among the easiest, improving their chances to solidify their league position.
Newcastle (Odds: -125)
Newcastle United are thriving this season, buoyed by their historic Carabao Cup victory against Liverpool – ending a 70-year trophy drought. Currently sixth but with a game in hand, they remain firmly in contention.
Tactical Analysis
Eddie Howe’s tactical flexibility has been a key factor in the teams’ success.
In the Carabao Cup final, Howe used Joelinton, traditionally an attacking midfielder, in a defensive midfield role. This improved Newcastle’s physical presence and defensive solidity, disrupting Liverpool’s attacking flow.
The team adopted a 4-5-1 formation instead of their usual 4-4-2, which allowed them to control the midfield and limit their rivals’ passing options.
Tinoooooo! 🏆 pic.twitter.com/ohh9BczHrO
— Newcastle United (@NUFC) March 20, 2025
Offensively, striker Alexander Isak has been indispensable. His “go, stop, go” pattern has been particularly effective against high-caliber defenders. He creates scoring opportunities and adds dynamism to Newcastle’s attack.
Chances of a Top-Five Finish
Only eight points separate the fourth and eleventh European positions. However, Newcastle’s recent form and tactical adaptability position them well in the race for a top-five finish. Their remaining fixtures may be challenging, but their current momentum and game in hand provide a favorable outlook.
Brighton (Odds: +449)
Brighton’s season under Fabian Hürzeler has seen a tactical transformation that has positioned them close to European qualification in seventh place.
Tactical Analysis
Under the guidance of head coach Fabian Hürzeler, since July 2024, Brighton have embraced a high-intensity, counter-pressing style reminiscent of Jürgen Klopp’s tactics. Their strategy has led to significant victories against top-tier teams, including Man City, Man United, Tottenham, and Newcastle.
King Kaoru. 👑 Kaoru’s scintillating showing against Chelsea wins him our Porsche Centre Mid-Sussex Performance of the Month award! 🇯🇵✨ pic.twitter.com/fXdQbVWMUL
— Brighton & Hove Albion (@OfficialBHAFC) March 19, 2025
Offensively, Brighton have transitioned from a possession-oriented approach to a more vertical, direct style. This shift has resulted in a more centralized offensive game plan, increasing efficient goal-scoring opportunities.
Defensively, the team exhibit aggressive pressing and intelligent positioning, consistently disrupting opponents’ build-up play. They’ve been effective in regaining possession and initiating swift counter-attacks.
Chances of a Top-Five Finish
The competition for European qualification is intense, with teams like Bournemouth, Aston Villa, Newcastle, and Fulham also vying for top spots. Brighton’s recent form and a six-match winning streak across all tournaments position them as strong contenders for a top-five finish.
Their tactical adaptability and consistent performances against high-caliber teams enhance their prospects of securing a European spot.
Fulham (Odds: +3296)
Marco Silva’s Fulham side has quietly impressed, sitting just three points away from Champions League qualification in eighth place.
Tactical Analysis
Silva employs a workable 4-2-3-1 formation, balancing a solid defense with fluid attacking play. The team’s defensive organization is notable, with full-backs Antonee Robinson and Kenny Tete contributing excellently to defending and interceptions.
In midfield, Alex Iwobi has been revitalized under Silva’s guidance, showcasing adaptability and creativity. He’s been instrumental in linking defense and attack, contributing significantly to Fulham’s offensive dynamics.
Sitting eighth with nine to go. 📈 pic.twitter.com/lKNGzHnlze
— Fulham Football Club (@FulhamFC) March 19, 2025
Offensively, the club rotates in wide areas to create overloads and exploit spaces. Their interplay between wingers and full-backs facilitates overlapping and underlapping runs, leading to diverse crossing opportunities.
Striker Raúl Jiménez leads the scoring charts with nine league goals. Rodrigo Muniz has been effective as an impact substitute, recently scoring in a 2-0 victory over Tottenham.
Chances of a Top-Five Finish
The fight for a European place is intense, with Fulham among several teams vying for a top-five spot. However, they face a challenging run-in, with their remaining fixtures rated as the toughest among Premier League teams.
Aston Villa (Odds: +899)
Unai Emery’s Aston Villa have surged into European contention, notably boosted by impactful signings Marco Asensio and Marcus Rashford.
Tactical Analysis
Emery has implemented a dynamic 4-2-3-1 formation, emphasizing versatility and attacking prowess. The January acquisition of Marco Asensio has significantly bolstered Villa’s offense. Since his arrival, Asensio has netted eight goals in seven matches, showing his immediate impact.
The Boss 🖊️ pic.twitter.com/fgiPBKfYny
— Aston Villa (@AVFCOfficial) March 17, 2025
The loan signing of Marcus Rashford has further improved Villa’s attack. Rashford’s pace and ability to exploit defensive gaps align with Emery’s counter-attacking strategy, providing depth and unpredictability in the final third.
Set-piece situations have become crucial aspects of Villa’s tactical approach, orchestrated by specialist coach Austin MacPhee. The team have implemented innovative routines, particularly during corners. These create dilemmas for opposing defenses and increase their chances of scoring.
Chances of a Top-Five Finish
Only six points separate third-placed Nottingham Forest and tenth-placed Aston Villa, so competition for the top-five PL positions is high. However, the Villans’ recent form, including a victory over Brentford secured by Ollie Watkins’ goal, has bolstered their odds.
Their remaining fixtures are moderately challenging, but current momentum and adaptability under Emery lay out a solid foundation for securing a top spot.
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