Lorenzo Insigne in Toronto: Big Money, Bigger Expectations – Is the ROI There Yet?

Lorenzo Insigne landed at Toronto FC in July 2022 as the highest-profile import MLS had ever signed. The club paid Serie A-level wages to lure the Italian winger away from Napoli. With a reported $15.44 million guaranteed salary in 2025 – second only to Lionel Messi in the league – he was always going to be judged against his price tag.

Lorenzo Insigne’s Contract and Expectations in Context

Toronto gave Insigne a four-year Designated Player contract that ran through June 2026. The idea was simple: add a proven scorer, sell jerseys, and push TFC back into the playoffs. Those goals hadn’t been achieved. On July 1, 2025, the club and player agreed to a mutual buyout, freeing up a DP slot and ending the Insigne contract 12 months early.

Insigne’s Performance Metrics Since Joining Toronto FC

Games played, goals, and assists tell one story, while minutes lost to injury tell another. Here are the numbers that matter:

Goals, Assists, and Key Contributions

Season by season, here’s how the production stacks up:

According to FBref.com, across 66 MLS appearances, he produced 15 goals and 13 assists – solid, but not the game-changing haul the club expected.

Injury Record and Match Availability

Hamstring and groin issues kept Insigne Lorenzo out for long spells. He missed eight straight matches in 2024 and sat out more than a third of league fixtures overall. 

That lack of availability limited squad cohesion and made week-to-week betting on Insigne’s impact for Toronto FC quite tricky.

Advanced Stats: xG, Key Passes, and Dribble Success Rate

Here’s how the deeper numbers stack up for his most recent season:

• Non-penalty xG: 1.5 (0.15 per 90)
• Expected Assisted Goals (xAG): 0.8 (0.08 per 90)
• Shot-creating actions: 3.55 per 90 minutes
• Successful take-ons: 0.42 per 90, 8th percentile (vs. MLS AM/W)

Those stats show a player who is still creative but no longer beats defenders at will, which is important when you consider the winger role he played at Napoli.

ROI Analysis: Is Lorenzo Insigne Delivering Value for Money?

Toronto paid roughly $2.46 million in salary per MLS goal ($36.9 million ÷ 15 goals). No transfer fee was required because he joined on a free after leaving Napoli, so salary alone drives the calculation. Ticket sales and marketing value matter, but on-field return on investment (ROI) never came close to expectations. The July 2025 buyout underscores that the club saw diminishing returns.

Betting Trends Involving Lorenzo Insigne and Toronto FC

Here’s where the betting angles had shifted most since his arrival:

• When he started, TFC averaged 1.22 goals for and 1.85 conceded per game, so overs (2.5) cashed 54% of the time.
• Anytime scorer props lengthened from about +190 in July 2022 (per Covers’ preview for TFC vs. Charlotte) to around +380 by late June 2025 (DraftKings pricing via Gambly’s odds screen for NYRB vs. TFC).
• First-goal bets hit just once in his last 30 league starts.
• Cards markets: Tactical fouls climbed; he drew 0.25 yellows per 90 in 2025.

The gap between his big-name reputation and actual production often inflated pricing, creating value on the fade side.

Public Perception vs. Sharp Analysis

The average fan still pictures Lorenzo Insigne’s Napoli highlight reel and assumes elite output. Sharper models, however, focus on current form, MLS travel wear, and the age curve. That disconnect had kept Toronto overpriced on many matchdays, especially against pressing teams that could isolate the winger.

When to Bet On or Against Toronto FC with Insigne

Insigne’s form has been streaky, so market timing matters. Watch the venue, rest days, and weather – cold nights at BMO Field suit him better than humid road trips.

Home vs. Away Performance Trends

Here’s how the numbers split when you separate home and road games:

• Home (BMO Field, Toronto): Insigne’s xG jumped to 0.27 per 90; TFC collected 0.77 points per game.
• Away: xG dropped to 0.10; points haul rose slightly to 1.10.

Bettors should’ve backed TFC or the over at home when Insigne started, but considered opposing them on the road, especially on short rest dates. A mid-week away fixture was often the clearest fade spot, while a full-week prep in Toronto kept him closest to peak output.

Future Outlook: Is Insigne Still a Value Bet in MLS?

With the buyout complete, Insigne is a free agent. Rumours tie him to Lazio and to clubs in the Saudi Pro League, but nothing is official yet. Any new deal will likely come at a lower salary, so the salary-to-production ratio could improve. If he lands on a possession-heavy side where he can act as a secondary creator, his xAG and key pass totals should rebound. Until then, betting markets will treat him cautiously.

Conclusion

The Lorenzo Insigne era at TFC shows how difficult big-money imports can be. The headline salary looked bold, while the underlying metrics looked average. From a betting stance, fading public hype around Insigne’s Toronto FC stint has been – and may remain – a profitable play.

By Juan Pablo Aravena

Updated: 01 Aug 2025, 22:46