Betting on the Underdog: Why Cavalry FC Is the Smart Bettor’s Pick

Cavalry sit third in the 2025 Canadian Premier League (CPL) table with 25 points from 14 matches – seven wins, four draws, three losses, 22 goals scored, and only 12 conceded (as of July 23). That record means a 50% win rate and a positive goal difference of +10, yet most U.S. and Canadian sportsbooks still price the Calgary side as an outsider in the outright market.

At 20Bet, you can still find futures around +696 for Cavalry to lift the league trophy, while favorites Forge hover near -118 and Atlético Ottawa around +497. An implied 12.6% title chance for a team already in striking distance of first place looks like value.

Cavalry FC – A Team Profile for Bettors

Founded in 2018 and playing home games at ATCO Field, Spruce Meadows in Calgary, Cavalry benefit from reliable crowds and a true home-field advantage. The stadium holds 6,000 spectators, and tickets often sell out, creating a loud, intense atmosphere that rattles visiting sides. 

Head coach Tommy Wheeldon Jr. prioritizes pressing, quick transitions, and set-piece routines – factors bettors can exploit in markets such as “first to score” and “total corners.” 

Keep an eye on the club’s official schedule page for late travel spots, and use the 20Bet live and livescore feed to catch in-play value when Cavalry concede possession yet create big chances on the break.

Why Bookmakers Often Undervalue Cavalry FC

Bookmakers lean heavily on brand weight and public money. Forge’s dynasty and Atlético Ottawa’s Spanish backing – the Atlético branding, bigger logo, wider media reach – soak up attention, pushing Cavalry’s lines longer than their performance warrants. 

The futures above show Cavalry (+696) priced almost six times longer than Forge (-118) despite sitting just seven points back with a game in hand. Independent models at Soccer-Rating even flagged Cavalry as “overrated” before a July trip to Valour, yet pegged fair odds at 1.98 versus bookies’ 1.78 – still tighter than the market, signaling mispricing.

Betting Trends and Patterns with Cavalry FC

Here’s what the numbers tell us so far:

• Results vs. market: Since opening day 2025, Cavalry have covered the Asian handicap in nine of 14 league matches (64%).
• Totals: Matches average 2.43 goals but drop to 1.86 when Cavalry play away, so unders are profitable on the road.
• Both teams to score (BTTS): Only seven of 14 (50%) have seen BTTS land, thanks to a defense that ranks second-best in goals against.
• First-half draws: Six of 14 first halves ended tied. Look for 20Bet’s “Draw/Win” double result at long odds.

These patterns reflect a side that keeps games close early, then uses fitness and set-piece precision to pull clear late – this is the exact profile sharp bettors hunt for.

Key Stats That Support Cavalry FC as a Smart Bet

Here’s what the raw numbers say: Cavalry’s defense, win rate, and xG all hit top-tier marks even though the market prices them like a mid-table side. 

Goals For and Against: Defensive Solidity Matters

Cavalry concede just 0.86 goals per match – best in the CPL through mid-July – and post an expected-goals-against (xGA) of 1.30, demonstrating that their defensive numbers are sustainable.

Win Percentage vs. Market Expectations

Look at how results stack up against pricing:

• Actual win rate: 50% (7 wins/14 games).
• Market-implied title probability: 12.6% (based on +696 futures).

The gap between those two figures highlights recurring line value. It also means you’ll often see plus money on Cavalry FC games where the numbers say the match is closer to a coin flip.

Player Metrics: Top Scorers, xG, and Defensive Anchors

Individual numbers back up the team trends:

• Ali Musse leads with 5 goals (0.50 per 90 minutes) and sits joint-second for assists.
• Tobias Warschewski has chipped in 5 goals and 3 assists while topping minutes played.
• Team xG is 1.69 per match, the highest in the league.

These Cavalry FC players’ stats show why the team’s spine is strong at both ends and why their price still lags their performance.

Cavalry FC vs. Other CPL Teams: Betting Comparison

Here’s how the main contenders stack up (as of July 23):

Despite trailing the top two by just a handful of points, Cavalry’s underlying numbers beat both. That mix – elite metrics with outsider odds – is textbook value for bettors across U.S. and Canadian markets.

Conclusion

Cavalry stand out because the stats and on-field eye test say “contender,” while sportsbooks still file them under “underdog.” A disciplined back line, league-best xG, and clutch set-piece production give them multiple paths to win. Until the odds catch up, 20Bet users can lean on Asian handicaps, outright futures, and low-scoring angles to extract consistent returns.

By Juan Pablo Aravena

Updated: 01 Aug 2025, 22:39