Europa League 2025–26: Clubs With the Best Home Advantage

There is a moment in the Europa League when the away side realizes this is not just another soccer game. The ball feels quicker, the tackles feel louder, and every throw-in is treated like a corner kick. Home advantage isn’t a myth in this competition. It’s a lever.

With 108 of 189 matches already played in the 2025–26 Europa League season (as of January 2026), home teams are scoring more, shooting more, and winning more often than their visitors.

These home-advantage metrics provide essential context for Europa League final predictions.

How Home Advantage Was Measured

The home advantage analysis below draws exclusively from 2025-26 Europa League data, examining shots per match, goals scored at home versus away, and overall goal differentials across venues.

Here’s a snapshot of the tournament numbers so far:

• Average goals per match: 2.69
• Home goals vs. away goals: 1.47 vs. 1.21
• Home shots vs. away shots: 13.43 vs. 10.35
• Result distribution: 47% home wins, 19% draws, 33% away wins

Beyond these raw statistics, we examine expected goals (xG), a metric that estimates the quality of scoring chances based on factors like shot location and type. We also analyze expected goals against (xGA), especially in away matches, to assess defensive performance across venues.

Clubs With the Strongest Home Advantage in 2025–26

Six standout teams have performed much better at home than away, based on goal differentials, defensive records, and overall results.

With that out of the way, let’s take a more microscopic look and see how the teams have performed at home vs. away.

Viktoria Plzeň

Viktoria Plzeň’s Europa League campaign is built on control rather than volume. They went unbeaten in the league phase (2W, 4D), scoring six and conceding just two goals. 

At home, they’ve been close to perfect defensively: a 3–0 win over Malmö followed by goalless draws with Fenerbahçe and Freiburg resulted in three clean sheets and a +3 home goal difference. 

On the road, they’ve remained solid rather than expansive, earning a 1–1 draw at Ferencváros, a 2–1 win at Roma, and a 0–0 draw at Panathinaikos for a +1 away goal differential. 

FBref shows Viktoria Plzeň with 4.6 xG for home versus just 1.0 xG away, confirming significantly stronger offensive output at home.

Defensively, they have an xGA of 2.3 across their home games and 4.4 on the road, demonstrating more solid defensive performance in front of their own fans.

RB Salzburg

Salzburg’s Europa League numbers are brutally split by venue. Through the first six league-phase matches, they’ve taken three points (1W, 5L), with five goals scored and 11 conceded. Four of those five goals came at home when they lost 2–3 to Ferencváros and won 2–0 against Go Ahead Eagles. 

Once they leave Austria, the attack almost disappears: they lost 0–2 at Lyon, 1–4 at Bologna, and 0–1 at Freiburg.

FBref data reveals RB Salzburg’s stark away struggles in the Europa League. In three home matches, they posted 5.0 xG and 5.3 xGA. On the road, however, their attack dropped to just 3.2 xG, while their defense allowed a high 9.6 xGA.

These figures highlight a significant loss of both attacking threat and defensive resilience away from Austria.

PAOK

PAOK are an exceptionally strong home team but chaotic away. Across six league-phase matches, they’ve scored 13 and conceded 10.

In Thessaloniki, they’ve allowed just one goal across three home matches: a 0–0 draw against Maccabi Tel-Aviv, a 4–0 demolition of Young Boys, and a 1–1 draw with Brann. 

Away from Toumba Stadium, matches become high-scoring affairs. They lost 1–3 at Celta Vigo, won 4–3 at Lille, and drew 3–3 at Ludogorets, which resulted in a -1 away goal difference. 

Their profile is aggressive, with 6.4 xG at home and 6.2 xG on the road. However, their xGA sits at 3.4 at home compared to 6.5 away, indicating significantly weaker defensive performance on the road.

FC Porto

Porto’s Europa League campaign has been impressive. They’ve taken 13 points from six games (4W, 1D, 1L) with a +4 goal difference, with most success coming at Estádio do Dragão. While it’s too soon to call them favorites for the Europa League trophy, their record is quite solid.

At home, they beat Crvena Zvezda 2–1, Nice 3–0, and Malmö 2–1, scoring seven and conceding two across three games. 

Away from Portugal, they edged Salzburg 1–0 but then lost 2–0 at Nottingham Forest and drew 1–1 with Utrecht, producing a -1 goal differential. 

FBref’s xG data clearly shows Porto are much stronger at home in this Europa League season. In their three home games, they created high-quality chances worth 6.9 xG and allowed only 2.3 xGA. In three away games, their attack produced just 3.0 xG while allowing 3.9 xGA.

This matches their real results — seven goals scored and two conceded at home versus only two scored and three conceded away — and proves they get a big boost from playing at Estádio do Dragão.

Aston Villa

Aston Villa have been one of the most complete sides in the league phase. Moreover, the Opta supercomputer views the team as the favorites to win the Europa League with a 23.3% chance. They’ve taken 15 of 18 possible points (5W, 0D, 1L) with a +6 goal difference. Their goals are split almost evenly between home and away. 

At Villa Park, they beat Bologna 1–0, Maccabi Tel-Aviv 2–0, and Young Boys 2–1. Away, they’ve looked almost as strong with a 2–0 win at Feyenoord and a 2–1 win at Basel. Their only slip was a 2–1 defeat at Go Ahead Eagles, leaving them with a +2 away goal differential. 

In their three games at Villa Park, they created chances worth 5.7 xG while allowing opponents just 2.7 xGA. On the road, they still performed strongly, producing 3.9 xG and facing 3.1 xGA — only a small drop-off compared to home.

This near-even split perfectly matches their actual goals (five scored and one conceded at home; five scored and three conceded away) and explains why they’ve collected 15 points from 18, looking like genuine contenders with a high performance level no matter the venue.

Crvena Zvezda (Red Star Belgrade)

Crvena Zvezda’s Europa League numbers show a fortress mentality at home. They’ve taken 10 points from six games with a flat zero goal difference, with most success coming in Belgrade. At home, they drew 1–1 with Celtic and beat both Lille and FCSB 1–0 — three goals scored, one conceded, and seven of their 10 points earned at the Rajko Mitić Stadium.

On the road, they lost 2–1 at Porto and 2–0 at Braga before turning things around with a 1–0 win at Sturm Graz, resulting in a -2 goal difference. 

FBref’s data clearly shows Crvena Zvezda (Red Star Belgrade) have been much harder to beat at home in this Europa League season. In their three home games, they created chances worth 4.9 xG and allowed only 3.9 xGA. On the road, their attack fell to just 2.5 xG while they allowed a higher 5.9 xGA.

This matches their real results — three goals scored and only one conceded at home (where they earned most of their 10 points), versus two scored and four conceded away — and highlights their strong fortress mentality at the Rajko Mitić Stadium.

Tactical Patterns That Strengthen Home Advantage

Home advantage is earned, not gifted. The best sides build it through habits that repeat every home game.

• Start fast and pin teams in. Across the Europa League this season, home teams average 13.43 shots per match compared to 10.35 away.
• Vigorously protect the box. Top home performers show measurably lower xGA at home than away.
• Make set plays count. Corners, wide free kicks, long throws, and second balls can swing games without dominating open play.
• Control the tempo. Smart teams know when to speed it up and when to slow it down.

Statistical Trends From Recent Europa League Seasons

Historical Europa League knockout data shows consistent home advantage. In the 2022-2023 season, 45 knockout matches ended in:

• Home wins: 22 (48.9%)
• Away wins: 8 (17.8%)
• Draws: 15 (33.3%)

The 2023-2024 season showed similar results:

• Home wins: 23 (51.1%)
• Away wins: 10 (22.2%)
• Draws: 12 (26.7%)

Last season continued the trend:

• Home wins: 25 (55.6%)
• Away wins: 12 (26.7%) 
• Draws: 8 (17.8%) 

These patterns suggest home teams in Europa League knockout matches offer value for both win predictions and over/under bets, with home sides winning roughly half of all knockout fixtures.

2025-26 Format and Scheduling

The league phase concludes with Matchdays 7 and 8 in January, followed by knockout rounds leading to the final on May 20, 2026, at Beşiktaş Park in Istanbul.

The key home advantage wrinkle is in the UEFA rules for seeding. Higher-ranked teams earn the return leg at home deeper into the knockouts. That changes incentives because teams do not just need to qualify but finish high to buy themselves the most valuable home night.

Responsible Gambling

Approach Europa League betting with discipline and strategy.

• Odds move with injuries, rotation, travel, and the draw. Compare more than one regulated online site.
• Know your local rules. In Canada, for example, betting rules vary by province. Research your region’s specific regulations and use only licensed operators
• Do not chase losses. A bad night is not fixed by doubling stakes or switching into casino spins.

Final Thoughts

The 2025–26 Europa League data confirms measurable home advantage, with the six clubs profiled showing goal differentials that shift by 1–2 goals per match based on venue.

That alone won’t decide the trophy, though. Cup football still rewards teams that handle away legs and momentum swings — but it shapes every tie from the knockout play-offs onward.

By Juan Pablo Aravena

Updated: 20 Jan 2026, 22:24