How to Bet on Penalties: Team Styles, Players & Strategies That Draw Fouls

Wagering on penalties is basically betting on chaos, but it’s not random. If you understand what creates contact in the box and what kind of teams invite it, you can win your penalty bets much more often, rather than just crossing your fingers. 

We took a look at the league penalty-rate tables and stats from aggregators such as Transfermarkt and FBref, to help you pinpoint the clubs that know how to get penalties. 

Key Factors That Increase Penalty Likelihood

Let’s take a closer look at which aspects are most likely to increase penalties. 

1) Box touches + dribble volume

Penalties don’t happen in midfield. They happen where defenders can’t afford to get beaten, like inside the area. So you’re looking for teams who:

• Carry the ball into the box repeatedly like Real Madrid and Manchester City. 
• Isolate defenders 1v1. Teams such as Barca have players like Pedri who actively engage defenders and win dribbles.
• Force tackles from the side or behind. 

2) Cutbacks and low crosses

Low balls across the six-yard box create panic defending, where you’ll often see defenders with stretched legs, blocked shots, and hands in unnatural positions. 

You don’t need a “diver” but rather defenders making desperate decisions to protect their net. Arsenal had 32 pullback passes in 21 games, or about 1.5 per match in the EPL. 

To identify cutback-heavy teams, search for “pull back / cut-back / low crosses per 90” to see which sides consistently reach the byline and fire low balls back into the box. You can find data on StatMuse, Transfermarkt and FBref. 

3) High pressure and forced errors

Pressing doesn’t directly win penalties, but it increases the number of “broken-shape” moments where a defender is turning, chasing, and reaching, exactly the posture you don’t want in your own box. 

On the lookout for such teams? Here are the leading high-pressure teams that force errors and win penalties:

• Brentford are topping the charts with 6 penalties won so far. Thomas Frank’s side are relentless in their organised high press, constantly forcing turnovers high up and putting defenders under huge pressure in the box. 
• Brighton are right up there near the top as well. Their intense, coordinated pressing creates non-stop chaos against teams trying to play out, leading to plenty of scrambled defending and fouls, which has got them 3 penalty kicks. 

• Barcelona have one of the most aggressive high presses in Europe right now and have converted that intensity into 4 penalties won. They swarm opponents early, win the ball in dangerous spots, and punish any recovery attempts. 

• Bayern Munich, through fouls, have won 3 penalties in their domestic league. Under Vincent Kompany, they’ve adopted a fierce high press that overwhelms build-up play, turning high recoveries into quick attacks and desperate challenges in the box. 

If you want to identify more teams, head to an aggregator like FBref.com and then → Choose the league → “Squad & Player Stats” → Scroll to:

• “Defensive Actions” table → Sort by PPDA (lowest first). 
• “Possession” or “Defensive Actions” → Sort by pressures/recoveries in attacking third. 

The top 4–6 teams in those columns are almost always your classic high-pressing sides. 

4) Game state

When the favourites go ahead early, the underdog often defends deeper for longer. If they go behind, they rack up box entries chasing the game. Either way, the game state can spike penalty probability, especially in the dying minutes of the match when teams get desperate and start crossing the ball every chance they get. 

5) VAR environment

VAR has changed the landscape and increased the chances of box incidents being reviewed. The VAR impact should not go unnoticed, as we saw more penalties overall. Since it was implemented, Europe’s top leagues saw a ~15% rise in penalties scored. In the Premier League, totals jumped (e.g., many seasons 100+ vs pre-VAR ~90), with 23–57% awarded via VAR intervention in early years. 

Teams Most Likely to Draw Fouls in Scoring Positions

A lot of bettors get it wrong when they pick “big teams” because they’re big.

Focus on styles:

Teams That are Most Likely to Draw Fouls and Win Penalties

Many bettors chase penalties by backing “big teams” simply because they’re famous or favourites, but that’s often a trap. The real drivers are specific playing styles that consistently create penalty-winning situations. 

Here are the three key archetypes:

• Box-dominant teams: High possession, territorial control, and repeated entries into the opponent’s penalty area force constant defensive pressure and foul opportunities. Teams that play this way include Manchester City and Barcelona. 
• Wing-isolation teams: Built around wide forwards who dribble 1v1, beat full-backs, and actively invite contact through cuts inside or drives into the box. Teams that play this way include Real Madrid (league leaders with 8 penalties, largely thanks to Vinícius Júnior’s relentless dribbling) and Barcelona. 
• Transition-punishing teams: Fast breaks and direct runners exploit recovering defenders who are out of position and chasing back. Teams that play this way include Brentford (top of the Premier League with 7 penalties from aggressive counters) and Bayern Munich (6 penalties via high press and rapid attacks). 

Building a Practical Shortlist

To spot these teams quickly:

1. Review penalties won this season and historically, plus opposition box touches (FBref → Squad Possession → Touches in Att Pen Area). 
2. Check dribbles/take-ons at team and player level (FBref → Dribbling table; high attempted/successful take-ons signal wing-isolation styles). 
3. Assess the matchup – Does the opponent concede many fouls overall, especially in their defensive third, or commit rash challenges?

You’ll find all of the data you need on stats sites like FBref and Transfermarkt. 

Here are the teams that’ve won the most penalties this season in their respective leagues as of January 8th, 2026:

Player Profiles That Increase Penalty Probability

Ball-dominant wingers

Players who carry the ball, stop-start, invite the tackle. Names like Luis Díaz and Bukayo Saka often come up in the conversation because they attempt 4+ take-ons per match in the box. 

Touchline-to-box dribblers

Wingers like Jeremy Doku and Dango Ouattara are the type who create repeated 1v1 contact moments. Doku has won 2 penalties this season for City, while Ouattara has 4 for Brighton. 

Strikers who get goal-side

You want forwards who arrive first and force defenders to tackle from behind or across the body. The classic “clip” penalty territory. For example, Harry Kane is known to win penalties, and so far, he’s won 2 for Bayern Munich. But that’s just scratching the surface. Kane has won 16 penalties in his career as a goal poacher. There are other players like Kylian Mbappé, who has 25 penalties, and Mohamed Salah, with 15. 

“Foul magnets” with smart body shape

Foul magnets, such as Dango Ouattara and Jorge de Frutos, are more likely to win penalties. They have a high percentage of fouls drawn per 90, with 1.86 and 1.53, respectively, and are much more likely to win penalties. Case in point, with those stats, Ouattara won 4, and Jorge de Frutos won 3 for their teams. 

Foul-prone defenders such as Rami Bensebaïni are the type of aggressive profile that can inflate foul outcomes in certain matchups. As things stand, Rami Bensebaïni has committed 9 fouls so far only in the Champions League. 

League-by-League Penalty Trends

There isn’t a great deviation when it comes to penalties from the past seasons. Back in 2023/24, we saw:

• Serie A: 142 penalties / 380 matches = 0.37 per game. 
• La Liga: 133 / 380 = 0.35 per game. 
• Ligue 1: 122 / 380 = 0.32 per game. 
• Bundesliga: 84 / 306 = 0.27 per game. 
• Premier League: 103 / 380 = 0.27 per game. 

So, if you’re looking for penties, those leagues have historically offered a friendlier environment than the EPL or Bundesliga. 

Advanced Metrics That Help Predict Penalties

If you’re serious about penalty betting, these are the numbers that move the needle. 

Pre-game, focus on fixtures where one team matches multiple archetypes, faces a foul-prone opponent, and has a strict referee. 

Target:

• “Penalty Awarded – “Yes” at -125 or better
• Team-specific penalty at +150 to +300 or higher
• Player props (e.g., Vinícius, Yamal, Mbeumo) at +400 to +1100 or higher

Support yourself with data from FBref and Transfermarkt on box touches and dribbles. 

In live betting, markets lag behind pressure—act on:

• Winger fouled 2–3 times early (15–20 mins) → “Yes” at +150 or better
• Defender on yellow and repeatedly isolated → odds often +100 or better
• Sustained spell of 5+ box touches/corners → back while odds hold value

For staking, stay disciplined due to variance

• Default: 1–2% of bankroll flat
• Strong value only: up to 3–5% max
• Never chase losses

Betting Strategies for Penalty Markets

Let’s talk actual markets:

1) “Penalty awarded: Yes/No”

The cleanest entry point. You don’t care who gets it, only that the ref points to the spot. 

2) “Which team will get a penalty?”

Higher odds, higher variance. Use when one side have a massive box-entry edge, and the opponents defend deep. You can expect around +225 to +350 for the team doing most of the box work. 

3) “First goal to be a penalty”

This is quite a long shot but you can expect odds of around +1400 to +2400 most of the time. 

4) “First penalty taker/designated taker”

It’s only worth it when you’re confident in the taker hierarchy and already think a penalty is likely. You can expect odds to range like this:

• Clear #1 taker on the aggressive/favoured team: +700 to +1200 
• Shared/unclear duties or player might be subbed: +1500 to +2900

5) Live betting (in-play)

The best angle, if you’re disciplined, is to watch as the game unfolds.

1. Is the ref giving soft contact?
2. Are defenders lunging?
3. Are attackers repeatedly getting goal-side?

This is where you can beat stale pre-match assumptions, but only if you keep the stakes sensible. 

Practical tip: Use an odds calculator (or any simple probability calculator) to sanity-check whether the implied probability makes sense before you click. Don’t just chase a “nice price”. 

Implied probability is what the odds say the chance is (for American odds: negative odds = |odds|/(|odds|+100), positive odds = 100/(odds+100)).

Responsible Gambling

Penalties are volatile, so treat them like it. 

• Set a stake cap. 
• Avoid chasing losses. 
• Don’t parlay (“parlay” and big bet builders) five penalty-related legs because you’re bored. 

Also, use licensed betting sites in your jurisdiction, and be careful with payment methods like crypto/bitcoin deposits. Fast money can make it easier to lose control. Keep it as entertainment, not income. 

If betting stops feeling fun, stop. Gambling is for adults, so if you are not 18+, just enjoy watching the sport.

By Juan Pablo Aravena

Updated: 21 Jan 2026, 13:55